2020 Prospect Success Indicator Pre-Draft Report

CD1Welcome to the 2020 Prospect Success Indicator (PSI) Pre-Draft Report.

Whether you’re a returning reader or new to this blog; if you want to learn more about the PSI model’s specifics and the changes that have been made for this year, click here

What is the Prospect Success Indicator Model?

PSI is a weighted equation of various advanced metrics designed to cut through the incoming class and narrow the field to increase our hit rates. It does this by comparing those incoming rookie profiles to that of the average Top 24 wide receiver profile. It is then distilled down to a percentage, the Prospect Success Indicator Percentile Rank, which tells us how close these incoming rookies match to that profile.

FAQ: Does 90% PSI Percentile Rank mean he has a 90% chance of breaking out?

  • No, it just means he’s a 90% match to the baseline profile of an average top 24 wide receiver in fantasy football. However, the higher the rank, the better the hit rates are (see tables below).

Pre

Below are the pre-draft PSI percentile rankings for the top 3 tiers of wide receivers in the 2020 class along with Rookie ADP, courtesy of my friends over at Breakout Finder, and each prospect closest player comp.

  1.  Player comps are as incoming NFL prospects, not as finished NFL products (comp = size + athleticism + age-adjusted college production. Not play style based).
  2. Pre-NFL Draft – view the rankings as – “Draft capital aside, who looks the most like a future Top 24 wide receiver in this rookie class?”
    1. Then compare their current rank to ADP to find market inefficiencies for over/undervalued players

A more formal write up on each prospect will be done post-NFL draft, so look out for my follow up article with the finalized rankings and player context to help you best prepare for your rookie drafts.

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Tier 3 – 70th Percentile

  • Darnell Mooney – Tulane
    • PSI Rank: 71.2%
    • Rookie ADP: 5.04
    • Player Comp: Tyler Lockett
  • Jerry Jeudy – Alabama
    • PSI Rank: 71.8%
    • Rookie ADP: 1.07
    • Player Comp: Stefon Diggs
  • Chase Claypool – Notre Dame *Added in post-draft due to WR designation 
    • PSI Rank: 75.0%
    • Rookie ADP: 2.07
    • Player Comp: Jonathan Baldwin
  • Brandon Aiyuk – Arizona State
    • PSI Rank: 75.0%
    • Rookie ADP: 2.09
    • Player Comp: Anthony Miller
  • Tyler Johnson – Minnesota
    • PSI Rank: 75.8%
    • Rookie ADP: 3.03
    • Player Comp: Cooper Kupp
  • Bryan Edwards – South Carolina
    • PSI Rank: 75.8%
    • Rookie ADP: 2.02
    • Player Comp: Michael Thomas
  • Kalija Lipscomb – Vanderbilt
    • PSI Rank: 76.6%
    • Rookie ADP: 5.11
    • Player Comp: Roger Lewis
  • Tee Higgins – Clemson
    • PSI Rank: 78.0%
    • Rookie ADP: 2.02
    • Player Comp: Kelvin Harmon

Tier 2 – 80th Percentile

  • Marquez Callaway – Tennessee
    • PSI Rank: 81.0%
    • Rookie ADP: 5.07
    • Player Comp: Michael Gallup
  • Justin Jefferson – Louisiana State University
    • PSI Rank: 81.0%
    • Rookie ADP: 1.12
    • Player Comp: Chris Godwin
  • Denzel Mims – Baylor
    • PSI Rank: 82.1%
    • Rookie ADP: 1.10
    • Player Comp: Breshad Perriman
  • K.J. Hamler – Penn State
    • PSI Rank: 85.7%
    • Rookie ADP: 3.03
    • Player Comp: Andy Isabella
  • Quintez Cephus – Wisconsin*
    • PSI Rank: 88.7%
    • Rookie ADP: N/R
    • Player Comp: Willie Snead
  • Aaron Parker – Rhode Island
    • PSI Rank: 89.7%
    • Rookie ADP: N/R
    • Player Comp: KeeSean Johnson

Tier 1 – 90th Percentile

  • Antonio Gandy-Golden – Liberty Biberty
    • PSI Rank: 90.9%
    • Rookie ADP: 4.08
    • Player Comp: Mike Williams
  • CeeDee Lamb – Oklahoma
    • PSI Rank: 91.7%
    • Rookie ADP: 1.05
    • Player Comp: Corey Davis
  • Jalen Reagor – Texas Christian University
    • PSI Rank: 92.5%
    • Rookie ADP: 1.09
    • Player Comp: Christian Kirk
  • Gabriel Davis – University of Central Florida
    • PSI Rank: 92.5%
    • Rookie ADP: 4.09
    • Player Comp: Davante Adams

*Update 9.10.20: Quintex Cephus Breakoout age was off by one year due to suspensions. h/t Jon Moore for calling it out.

Thank you for reading, and don’t forget to check back post-NFL draft for the revised PSI rankings.

Follow me @DynastyGuruFF on Twitter

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