2020 Prospect Success Indicator Post-Draft Report

Welcome to the 2020 Prospect Success Indicator (PSI) Post-Draft Report.

If you missed the Pre-Draft Report, want to learn more about what goes into Prospect Success Indicator model and/or see the entire 2010-2020 Prospect Success Indicator Database follow the links below

What is the Prospect Success Indicator Model?

PSI is a weighted equation of various advanced metrics designed to cut through the incoming class and narrow the field to increase our hit rates. It does this by comparing those incoming rookie profiles to that of the average Top 24 wide receiver profile. It is then distilled down to a percentage, the Prospect Success Indicator Percentile Rank, which tells us how close these incoming rookies match the profile of a Top 24 wide receiver.
PSI Hit Rates by Tier

    • The first table shows you the total amount of wide receiver prospects to go on to have at least (1) Top 24 season by tier
    • The second table shows you the total amount of Top 24 seasons those wide receivers delivered by tier
      • Ex: In Tier 1 – 90th percentile – 27 wide receivers (50.0%) have hit and have to-date provided 80 Top 24 Seasons (58.0%).

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Prospect Profile Terms and Glossary

  • PSI Rank: is the percent to which a prospects profile mirrors that of Top 24 profile.
  • FAQ: Does 90% PSI Percentile Rank mean he has a 90% chance of breaking out?
    • No, it just means he’s a 90% match to the baseline profile of an average top 24 wide receiver in fantasy football.
  • Rookie ADP: ADP data is brought to you by Breakout Finder mock draft data
  • Injury Risk Rating: Injury data is brought to you by Ethan Turner (Follow on Twitter @ETurnerFF_PT) and his 2020 Rookie Injury Guide which is available for purchase
  • Player Comp: are the prospect to prospect comps based on size, athleticism, and age-adjusted college production. Sometimes good prospect profiles don’t pan out, doesn’t make it a lousy comp, or suggest this new player will follow the same career path.
  • Post-Draft: view the rankings as – “Now that we have draft capital, who is over and undervalued in rookie drafts?”

Below are the post-draft PSI percentile rankings for the top 3 tiers of wide receivers in the 2020 class.


Tier 3 – 70th Percentile – 13% Hit Rate

Darnell Mooney – Chicago Bears – 5th Round Pick

  • PSI Rank: 73.2%
  • Injury Risk Rating: 1 – Low Risk
  • Rookie ADP: 4.07
  • ADP Dynasty Value: Undervalued

Overview: Darnell Mooney is 5-10 176, runs a blazing 4.38 forty, broke-out at age 19, and during his junior year, posted a 48-percent college dominator rating. Mooney produced at an incredible level, but he did so while playing with a sub-par quarterback on a low volume offense. Mooney also posted an impressive career 17.8 yards-per-reception. Although Mooney was drafted in the 5th round, he enters a depth chart that, aside from Allen Robinson, is bereft of talent. Mooney is the perfect replacement for Taylor Gabriel, and that should give Mooney an incredible opportunity to start in year 1. Despite having to play with Trubisky/Foles, he should be able to make the occasional mark throughout the year. Given his current ADP, he’s worth a back-end of the roster spot on your fantasy team.

  • Player Comp: Tyler Lockett

Laviska Shenault – Jacksonville Jaguars – 2nd Round Pick

  • PSI Rank: 73.8%
  • Injury Risk Rating: 7.5 – High Risk
  • Rookie ADP: 2.05
  • ADP Dynasty Value: Overvalued

Overview: Laviska Shenault is a dynamic football player built like Ezekiel Elliot. Standing 6-0 227, Shenault is built like a freight train. Whether he’s running routes or taking hand-offs, Shenault is a load to take on as a linebacker or a defensive back. The biggest red flag for Shenault is his health; he suffered several injuries throughout his college career. From an age-adjusted college production perspective, Shenault broke-out at age 20 and only had one season over 30-percent market share in yards and touchdowns, as injuries derailed his junior year. Shenault looks like the perfect complement to pair with an actual X receiver in DJ Chark. As long as Minshew is the starting quarterback, Shenault will have a hard time breaking out, which given his current rookie ranking of 14 overall he’s not worth the price today to roster on your team. Put him down as a buy low candidate in 2021.

  • Player Comp: Arrelious Benn

Aaron Parker – Dallas Cowboy – UDFA

  • PSI Rank: 74.4%
  • Injury Risk Rating: 1- Low Risk
  • Rookie ADP: UDFA
  • ADP Dynasty Value: Undervalued

Overview: Aaron Parker is the best small school prospect we got in 2020, but not on the level of an Ashton Dulin or Justin Watson. He broke-out at age 18.4 and posted a 38-percent college dominator rating. Ideally, we would like to see a more significant dominator rating here, given his level of competition. Parker never played wide receiver until he got to Rhode Island. Parker was a linebacker in high school, but as soon as he switched to wide receiver his freshman season, he never looked back and was the #1 receiver every year. Parker even beat out his cousin, Isaiah Coulter, who was drafted by the Houston Texans and played receiver at the same high school as Parker. Parker is still very raw and lacks burst and speed, but he makes up for it with better than average agility. He’s a slot receiver at the next level and will need time to gain experience.

  • Player Comp: KeeSean Johnson

Tyler Johnson – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 5th Round Pick

  • PSI Rank: 75.0%
  • Injury Risk Rating: 1.25 – Low Risk
  • Rookie ADP: 3.09
  • ADP Dynasty Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Tyler Johnson has one of the most impressive age-adjusted production profiles in the 2020 class. Johnson broke-out at age 19.2 with a 51-percent college dominator rating. He was one of the best at contested catches. Johnson went to the NFL Combine and did not perform any drills, which signaled his lack of athleticism. Unfortunately, due to the global pandemic event, he was one of many prospects who never got his pro-day to clear up any athletic questions marks, and that sunk his draft stock. Fortunately for us, he was drafted by Tampa Bay, one of the best teams at identifying talented prospect profiles (Evans, Godwin, Watson, Miller) in all rounds of the draft. Now, Tyler Johnson joins the ranks. Johnson profiles as a pure slot receiver at the next level, which means he’s going to compete with former PSI favorite, Justin Watson, to back up Chris Godwin.

  • Player Comp: Cooper Kupp

Lynn Bowden Jr. – Las Vegas Raiders – 3rd Round Pick

  • PSI Rank: 79.6%
  • Injury Risk Rating: 1.25 – Low Risk
  • Rookie ADP: 3.03
  • ADP Dynasty Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Lynn Bowden was drafted as running back but will most likely be used in a Swiss army knife role. As a result, projecting him to break-out as either a running back or wide receiver is difficult to envision now. Still, due to the dual nature of his NFL role, he will be able to provide some flexible fantasy value at the next level even if he never becomes a top 24 option at either position. Bowden should easily step into the Jalen Richard role and take that passing down work in addition to probably being used in the slot on occasion.

  • Player Comp: Taywan Taylor

Michael Pittman – Indianapolis Colts – 2nd Round Pick

  • PSI Rank: 79.6%
  • Injury Risk Rating: 6.5 – High Risk
  • Rookie ADP: 2.02
  • ADP Dynasty Value: Overvalued

Overview: Michael Pittman is a four year senior who broke-out at age 21 during his junior campaign and ended with a 32-percent college dominator rating. Although he put together a fantastic senior year, he slightly over-indexed on touchdowns to prop up his dominator rating his whole career. His yards-per-reception dropped off from 18.5 to 12.9, in his final season at USC, as he saw more volume. I worry he may have just been another college compiler during his final season. Pittman is also a sound athlete across the board but lacks an elite trait. Pittman was one of the drafts biggest movers as he rose from 56.3% pre-draft to 72.1% post-draft

  • Player Comp: Kevin White

Tier 2 – 80th Percentile – 24% Hit Rate

Bryan Edwards – Las Vegas Raiders – 3rd Round Pick

  • PSI Rank: 83.3%
  • Injury Risk Rating: 7.5 – High Risk
  • Rookie ADP: 2.04
  • ADP Dynasty Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Bryan Edwards will forever be etched into the analytics hall of fame for achieving the youngest recorded break-out age in history at 17.8 years old. As a result, Edwards is entering the NFL at the tender age of 21.5 years of age, which means he will have a much longer runway to break-out than most prospects have entering the NFL. Edwards dealt with poor quarterback play and a low volume offense at South Carolina and, for most of his career, had to split that volume with Deebo Samuel. In his senior year, Edwards finally blew up, posting a college dominator rating of 48.5-percent despite the headwinds, as mentioned earlier (QB/Volume). Edwards broke his foot before the NFL Combine, so he never was able to test athletically, but it’s pretty safe to assume he’s athletic enough to be in the NFL. One red flag for Edwards is his health, as he has dealt with an injury every year since 2017.

  • Player Comp: Michael Thomas

Chase Claypool – Pittsburgh Steelers – 2nd Round Pick

  • PSI Rank: 84.5%
  • Injury Risk Rating: 3.5 – Low Risk
  • Rookie ADP: 3.05
  • ADP Dynasty Value: Undervalued

Overview: Chase Claypool, being drafted with the wide receiver designation, was pretty surprising as the groupthink going into the draft was best suited to be a tight end at the next level. Claypool is a massive human being (6-4, 238), and despite that size, he jumped out of the NFL Combine by testing as +90th percentile athlete. While many have comped his athletic measurables to Calvin Johnson, don’t mistake him for Calvin on the field. Despite the impressive size and athleticism, Claypool was looked at as a tight end due to his vastly underwhelming college production for a guy that big and fast. Claypool only posted a 33-percent college dominator rating and broke-out in his final season at Notre Dame at age 21.2. It is a little alarming that man of this size and athleticism took four years to command a greater than 20-percent market share. On the plus side, the Pittsburgh Steelers are among the best franchises at identifying wide receiver talent and value, which makes Claypool an interesting dynasty asset.

  • Player Comp: Jonathan Baldwin

*Quintez Cephus – Detroit Lions – 5th Round Pick

  • PSI Rank: 84.9%
  • Injury Risk Rating: 2.25 – Low Risk
  • Rookie ADP: 5.08
  • ADP Dynasty Value: Undervalued

Overview: Quintez Cephus broke-out at 20.6 and posted a college dominator rating of 36-percent. Cephus ran into some trouble while at Wisconsin, which caused him to miss the entire 2018 season. Once reinstated, he picked up right where he left off and stepped right back into the #1 wide receiver role for the Badgers. At the NFL Combine, he posted a sub-25th percentile 4.73 forty to go along with a sub-25th-percentile 7.20 3-cone. Cephus profiles as another big slot receiver similar to Tyler Johnson. He could see some serious volume soon as Marvin Jones is now 30 years old and entering the final year of his deal. By this time next year, we could be talking about Cephus being Golladay’s sidekick.

  • Player Comp: Willie Snead

Jerry Jeudy – Denver Broncos – 1st Round Pick

  • PSI Rank: 85.3%
  • Injury Risk Rating: 2.5 – Low Risk
  • Rookie ADP: 1.11
  • ADP Dynasty Value: Overvalued

Overview:Jerry Jeudy is the classic case of crowning the “Next Big Thing” too early. Last summer, all the talk on Twitter was he was easily the #1 wide receiver and the next future hall of famer, and here we are 12 months later, and he’s being drafted at the end of the first round behind four other receivers. His profile doesn’t scream future star, not to say he cannot become one, but Twitter drove the train into overdrive before it needed to. Now he’s on an offense with two other wide-outs with better profiles than him. Due the fact that Hamler and Sutton project to be better, Jeudy’s value has yet to be appropriately adjusted as Hamler has a lower ADP.

  • Player Comp: Stefon Diggs

Tee Higgins – Cincinnati Bengals – 2nd Round Pick

  • PSI Rank: 86.1%
  • Injury Risk Rating: 4 – Moderate Risk
  • Rookie ADP: 1.09
  • ADP Dynasty Value: Overvalued

Overview:Tee Higgins is 6-3 216, broke-out at age 19.8, and posted a college dominator rating of 30-percent. He’s built in the mold of former Clemson alum Mike Williams except Tee Higgins is more than just deep threat contested-catch receiver. Higgins offers a more well-rounded skill set. Despite being a well regarded high school basketball star, it was surprising to see Higgins post an underwhelming 31-inch vertical at his pro day. Higgins entered the draft process with significant questions about his speed and athleticism. While his vertical was one of the all-time worst, Higgins did post a respectable 4.54 forty at his pro-day. Despite rumors that he would fall in the draft, he was taken in the 2nd round. Higgins silenced all the doubts during the draft process and is now in a prime position to succeed.

  • Player Comp: Kelvin Harmon

Brandon Aiyuk – San Francisco 49ers – 1st Round Pick

  • PSI Rank: 86.5%
  • Injury Risk Rating: 2.5 – Low Risk
  • Rookie ADP: 2.01
  • ADP Dynasty Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview: Brandon Aiyuk is a junior college transfer who broke-out in his senior year. On the surface, this sounds like a profile we would typically be avoiding, but Aiyuk might end up being one of the biggest risers by the time we get to August drafts. Aiyuk was graded higher by some teams (San Francisco confirmed this) than last year’s #1 receiver and former teammate, N’Keal Harry. Aiyuk was injured during the draft process and was likely not fully healthy when he ran 4.5 forty at the Combine. Aiyuk’s head coach, Herm Edwards, told John Lynch to ignore the 4.5 time and that he runs a 4.3 when healthy. In his one season as the #1 receiver, Aiyuk posted a 39-percent college dominator rating along with an 18.3 yards per reception. Aiyuk also led all receivers in the 2020 class in yards after the catch. He is dynamic with the ball in hands, as soon as he gets the ball, he turns into a runner and does it seamlessly without losing any speed. In an offense built on getting play-makers the ball and having them create Aiyuk is the perfect fit for San Francisco across from Deebo.

  • Player Comp: Anthony Miller

Antonio Gandy-Golden – Washington Redskins – 4th Round Pick

  • PSI Rank: 86.7%
  • Injury Risk Rating: 2.25 – Low Risk
  • Rookie ADP: 4.04
  • ADP Dynasty Value: Undervalued

Overview:Antonio Gandy-Golden is a four-year starter at Liberty University. For the last three years, he posted consecutive thousand-yard seasons with ten touchdowns every year like clockwork. He ended his college career, averaging 17.7 yards per reception, showcasing that he can be a big-play receiver despite a lack of speed. Gandy-Golden looks like a discount version of Mike Williams, a tall not so fast, contested catch guy, and red-zone threat. Although he ended up going day 3 in the NFL draft, he went as the 2nd wide receiver off the board in the 4th round. In any other draft, Gandy-Golden is a day two draft pick; he just happened to come out in the deepest draft we’ve seen in some time at the position, and that naturally depressed his stock which has now made him a dynasty value

  • Player Comp: Mike Williams

Gabriel Davis – Buffalo Bills – 4th Round Pick

  • PSI Rank: 87.1%
  • Injury Risk Rating: 1 – Low Risk
  • Rookie ADP: 4.01
  • ADP Dynasty Value: Undervalued

Overview: Gabriel Davis was a three-year starter and captain at UCF. During his freshman year, he was stuck behind former PSI favorite Tre’Quan Smith. As soon as Smith left, Davis took on the role of alpha receiver and never looked back. During his final year, he posted a 72/1,241/12 line to go along with 17.2 yards-per-reception. Davis lined up exclusively on the left side of the formation and ran a limited route tree, but if he can learn to be more versatile, he can grow into one of the best values in dynasty rookie drafts. If you want a more in-depth look, click here, I wrote about him back in March.

  • Player Comp: Davante Adams

Denzel Mims – New York Jets – 2nd Round Pick

  • PSI Rank: 88.7%
  • Injury Risk Rating: 4 – Moderate Risk
  • Rookie ADP: 1.10
  • ADP Dynasty Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview:Denzel Mims is the oldest prospect of the top two tiers at 22.2 years of age, despite being one of five seniors in the group. Mims broke-out at age 20 and posted a career college dominator rating of 39%. While Mims had a productive career at Baylor, it is worth noting that in the one year Jalen Hurd was on the team, Mims was regulated to #2 duties all year. At the NFL Combine, Mims smashed every event he took part in and walked away as arguably the most athletic receiver in the class. Mims also dominated the competition at the Senior Bowl this year. He was the talk of Twitter throughout the week, which is why it was so surprising that by all accounts, Mims was the pre-draft winner but ended up falling all the way down to the 59th overall pick in the draft. Players usually drop for one of two reasons, medical or mental makeup. Given the fact that he has only a moderate risk, it makes you think if he has some maturity issues, we don’t know about that knocked him down the boards.

  • Player Comp: Breshad Perriman

Justin Jefferson – Minnesota Vikings – 1st Round Pick

  • PSI Rank: 89.3%
  • Rookie ADP: 1.07
  • Injury Risk Rating: 2 – Low Risk
  • ADP Dynasty Value: Overvalued

Overview: Justin Jefferson is a 2-year starter from LSU. In his sophomore year, he broke-out at age 19.8, leading his team in yards and touchdowns. Jefferson followed it up with a monster year as a part of one of the best offenses we’ve ever seen. Despite that, he posted a lower dominator rating (28-percent) than the prior-year (32-percent). While he no longer led his team in yards or touchdowns, he was just barely edged out by the #1 devy prospect, Ja’Marr Chase. Jefferson put on a show at the NFL Combine surprising everyone by running a 4.43 forty and turned himself into a 1st round draft pick.

  • Player Comp: Chris Godwin

Tier 1 – 90th Percentile – 50% Hit Rate

K.J. Hamler – Denver Broncos – 2nd Round Pick

  • PSI Rank: 91.1%
  • Rookie ADP: 2.12
  • Injury Risk Rating: 6.25 – Moderate Risk
  • ADP Dynasty Value: Undervalued

Overview: The curious case of K.J. Hamler. On the one hand, his production, a 32-percent college dominator rating, and break-out age of 19.3 make him an excellent prospect. On the other, he’s only 5-8 178. Going through the database, which dates back to 2010, there have been 43 players who measured 5-9 or shorter, and not one has gone on to have a top 24 season. The best receiver of that cohort is Jamison Crowder, who has provided us with three top 36 seasons. However, Hamler is one of only two receivers of his stature to achieve a 90th percentile rating with the other being, Andy Isabella, who was also drafted in the 2nd round just last year. While no receiver this size has yet break-out, it doesn’t mean it cannot happen. Hamler’s ADP in the late 2nd round makes him a steal in rookie drafts given the prospect profile upside.

  • Player Comp: Andy Isabella

CeeDee Lamb – Dallas Cowboys – 1st Round Pick

  • PSI Rank: 96.2%
  • Injury Risk Rating: 2.25 – Low Risk
  • Rookie ADP: 1.06
  • ADP Dynasty Value: Appropriately Valued

Overview:CeeDee Lamb is one of two receivers in this class that truly checks every single box you are looking for. Size? 6-1, 198, & 2.71 pounds-per-inch. Athleticism? 4.50 forty, 34.5 vertical, 10’4” broad jump, and 11 reps of 225 on the bench. College production? Broke-out at age 19.5 and posted a 35% college dominator rating. Also, Lamb was one of the best prospects for both highlight-reel catches and gaining yards after the catch. His draft day slide to the Dallas Cowboys at pick 17 was one of the most baffling things on the first night of the draft. Lamb helps complete what is now arguably one of the best wide receiver corps in the NFL and on offense that is now led by Mike McCarthy. The same coach helped Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, James Jones, Greg Jennings, and many more all break-out and be relevant in the same season. CeeDee Lamb enters what should be a prime location, even though it may seem like a crowded room. Lamb could very well break-out in year one, and no one should be surprised.

  • Player Comp: Corey Davis

Jalen Reagor – Philadelphia Eagles – 1st Round Pick

  • PSI Rank: 97.0%
  • Injury Risk Rating: 2 – Low Risk
  • Rookie Mock: 1.11
  • ADP Dynasty Value: Undervalued

Overview:

Jalen Reagor the 1a to CeeDee Lambs 1b or visa versa. Honestly, however, you want to rank them is just fine; it is that close. Jalen Reagor remains the top name but just barely edging out CeeDee Lamb. Jalen Reagor stands in 5-10, 206, with 2.94 pounds per inch. Which means he’s built like a tank for his size. Reagor was expected to run a 4.3 forty, so his draft stock took a hit when he clocked in at 4.47. 4.47 is still plenty fast and should not be a ding on his profile because he did not hit rumored expectations. In the NFL Draft, Reagor landed in one of the premier depth charts, Philadelphia. The wide receiver room was incredibly thin last year. Alshon Jeffrey is now a shell of his former self due to numerous injuries. Agholor was sent packing this off-season. Last year’s hyped prospect, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside face-planted every week before giving way to AAF star Greg Ward. Reagor now steps into a target vacuum devoid of a clear cut #1 option tied with a DGAF QB in Carson Wentz, who will have no issue throwing him the deep ball. Jalen Reagor looks like the #1 contender to break-out and lead all rookie receivers in year 1.

  • Player Comp: Christian Kirk

*Update 9.1.20: Quintez Cephus Breakout Age was off by 1 year due to suspension. h/t Jon Moore for calling it out.

Thank you for reading!

Follow me @DynastyGuruFF on Twitter

6 thoughts on “2020 Prospect Success Indicator Post-Draft Report

  1. Because of your info through the years, I have a top-three WR corps in my dynasty league. Due to your data, I jumped on Chris Godwin, traded for Golladay, drafted DJ Moore, and have Justin Watson on my Taxi squad. Your information is valuable and if you’re ever in Dallas I owe you a bunch of beers,

    Liked by 1 person

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