2021 PROSPECT SUCCESS INDICATOR PRE-DRAFT REPORT

Welcome to the 2021 Prospect Success Indicator (PSI) Pre-Draft Report.

Whether you’re a returning reader or new to my work; if you want to learn more about the details that go into the PSI model click here, if you just want to see the results continue scrolling.

What is the Prospect Success Indicator Model?

PSI is a weighted equation of various advanced metrics designed to cut through the incoming class and narrow the field to increase our hit rates. It does this by comparing those incoming rookie profiles to that of the average Top 24 wide receiver profile. It is then distilled down to a percentage, the Prospect Success Indicator Percentile Rank, which tells us how close these incoming rookies match to that profile.

FAQ: Does 90% PSI Percentile Rank mean he has a 90% chance of breaking out?

  • No, it just means he’s a 90% match to the baseline profile of an average top 24 wide receiver in fantasy football. However, the higher the rank, the better the hit rates are (see tables below).

FAQ: What can historical Pre-draft PSI scores tell us about this upcoming draft?

  • Using the tables below we can see that ~75% of all WR’s who achieve a top 24 season should already be in the top 70th percentile and above at this point in time, and that those wide recievers makeup ~85% of the total top 24 seasons.

Below are the pre-draft PSI percentile rankings for the top 3 tiers of wide receivers in the 2021 class along with Rookie ADP, courtesy of Sports Illustrated

  1.  Profile comps are as incoming NFL prospects, not as the likely finished NFL products you know today. (Comp = size + athleticism + age-adjusted college production.) Not play style/film based
  2. Pre-NFL Draft – view the rankings as – “Draft capital aside, who looks the most like a future Top 24 wide receiver in this rookie class?”
    1. Then compare their current rank to ADP to find market inefficiencies for over/undervalued players

A more formal write up on each prospect will be done post-NFL draft, so look out for my follow up article with the finalized rankings and player context to help you best prepare for your rookie drafts.

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TIER 3 – 70TH PERCENTILE

  • Cade Johnson – South Dakota State
    • PSI Rank: 71.4%
    • Rookie ADP: 5.05
    • Profile Comp: Diontae Johnson
  • Jaelon Darden – North Texas
    • PSI Rank: 74.1%
    • Rookie ADP: 6.06
    • Profile Comp: Mario Alford
  • Ihmir Smith-Marsette – Iowa
    • PSI Rank: 74.9%
    • Rookie ADP: 4.09
    • Profile Comp: Dante Pettis
  • Nico Collins- Michigan
    • PSI Rank: 75.6%
    • Rookie ADP: 3.10
    • Profile Comp: Equanimeous St. Brown
  • Tamorrion Terry – Florida State
    • PSI Rank: 75.9%
    • Rookie ADP: 3.06
    • Profile Comp: Gabriel Davis

TIER 2 – 80TH PERCENTILE

  • Rondale Moore – Purdue
    • PSI Rank: 82.3%
    • Rookie ADP: 1.09
    • Profile Comp: Unicorn
  • Terrace Marshall Jr. – LSU
    • PSI Rank: 83.7%
    • Rookie ADP: 1.11
    • Profile Comp: Denzel Mims
  • Rashod Bateman – Minnesota
    • PSI Rank: 84.3%
    • Rookie ADP: 1.08
    • Profile Comp: Stefon Diggs
  • Dyami Brown – North Carolina
    • PSI Rank: 84.8%
    • Rookie ADP: 2.06
    • Profile Comp: Nelson Agholor

TIER 1 – 90TH PERCENTILE

  • Seth Williams – Auburn
    • PSI Rank: 91.7%
    • Rookie ADP: 3.03
    • Profile Comp: Bryan Edwards
  • Tylan Wallace – Oklahoma State
    • PSI Rank: 92.6%
    • Rookie ADP: 1.12
    • Profile Comp: Randall Cobb
  • Elijah Moore – Ole Miss
    • PSI Rank: 94.6%
    • Rookie ADP: 2.03
    • Profile Comp: Tyler Lockett
  • Ja’Marr Chase – Louisiana State University
    • PSI Rank: 100%
    • Rookie ADP: 1.02
    • Profile Comp: Odell Beckham Jr.

Thank you for reading, and don’t forget to check back post-NFL draft for the revised PSI rankings.

Follow me @ProFootballPSI on Twitter

4 thoughts on “2021 PROSPECT SUCCESS INDICATOR PRE-DRAFT REPORT

  1. Hi – love the PSI! Thanks for your ongoing publication of the info, etc.
    I notice that some big names aren’t listed in the pre-draft… is that because there isn’t sufficient info to score them in the PSI at this point or did they somehow score so badly that they didn’t make the 70% cut-off? I find it hard to imagine that Waddle, for instance, would post a weak score considering his projection to go early in the draft…

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    1. Some of it is due to lack of info but not enough to make a huge difference. Pre-draft rankings DO NOT include draft capital. Waddle, even with 1st rd draft capital sit very far outside the top 3 tiers. He’s currently in tier 10 and ranked below Henry Ruggs who face-planted as a rookie and also didn’t make the cut in the PSI model. If you like and want to draft Waddle, go right on ahead, just do it knowing your betting on an outlier and hoping that speed makes up for it.

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      1. Wow… that’s very interesting. I would never have guessed that he’d be such a long shot given so many sources have him up there in the top 3-4 WRs on the board. Perhaps the draft will be telling in terms of the NFL’s actual interest in him. In any case, it sounds like it’d adieu to Waddle for me. I’ve used the PSI as a go/no-go for WRs the past several years and it’s proven to be a great strategy to do so.
        Cheers!

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