Welcome to year 6 of the Prospect Succes Indicator Report!
Whether you’re a returning reader or new to my work; if you want to learn more about the details that go into the PSI model click here, if you just want to see the results continue scrolling.
What is the Prospect Success Indicator Model?
PSI is a weighted equation of various advanced metrics designed to cut through the noise and biases and increase our hit rates. It does this by comparing those incoming rookie profiles to that of the historical average of a Top 24 wide receiver profile. Prospects are then measured against that profile and the Prospect Success Indicator Percentile Rank tells us how close these incoming rookies match to that profile.
FAQ: Does a 90% PSI Percentile Rank mean he has a 90% chance of breaking out?
- No, it just means he’s a 90% match to the historical profile of an average top 24 wide receiver in fantasy football. However, the higher the rank the better the hit rates are (see tables below).
FAQ: What can historical Pre-draft PSI scores tell us about this upcoming draft?
- Using the tables below we see that historically ~83% of all wide receiver prospects who go on to achieve a top 24 season are already in the top 60th percentile and above as of this writing. In addition, those wide receiver prospects go on to produce ~93% of the total top 24 seasons in the historical database.
Below are the pre-draft PSI percentile rankings for the top 3 tiers of wide receivers in the 2022 class along with Dynasty Rookie ADP, courtesy of FF Faceoff.
- Profile comps are as incoming NFL prospects, not as the likely finished NFL products you know today. (Comp = size + athleticism + age-adjusted college production.) Profiles are not based on playstyle/film
- Pre-NFL Draft – view the rankings as – “Draft capital aside, who looks the most like a future Top 24 wide receiver in this rookie class?”
A more formal write-up on each prospect will be done after the NFL draft, so look out for my follow-up article with the finalized rankings and player context to help you best prepare for your rookie drafts.
TIER 4 – 60TH PERCENTILE
- Chris Olave – Ohio State
- PSI Rank: 61.1%
- Rookie ADP: 1.08
- PSI Profile Comp: Dante Pettis
- Jalen Nailor – Michigan State
- PSI Rank: 62.2%
- Rookie ADP: 4.09
- PSI Profile Comp: Marquise Lee
- Ty Fryfogle – Indiana University
- PSI Rank: 62.5%
- Rookie ADP: UDFA
- PSI Profile Comp: Van Jefferson
- Calvin Austin – Memphis
- PSI Rank: 63.7%
- Rookie ADP: 4.05
- PSI Profile Comp: Marquise Brown
- Jalen Tolbert –Southern Alabama
- PSI Rank: 65.7%
- Rookie ADP: 3.06
- PSI Profile Comp: Marvin Jones
- Jameson Williams – Alabama
- PSI Rank: 66.9%
- Rookie ADP: 1.07
- PSI Profile Comp: Will Fuller
TIER 3 – 70TH PERCENTILE
- Jahan Dotson – Penn State
- PSI Rank: 77.5%
- Rookie ADP: 1.12
- PSI Profile Comp: Darnell Mooney
- Treylon Burks – Arkansas
- PSI Rank: 78.4%
- Rookie ADP: 1.02
- PSI Profile Comp: Alshon Jeffrey
- Christian Watson – North Dakota State University
- PSI Rank: 79.7%
- Rookie ADP: 2.04
- PSI Profile Comp: Stephen Hill
- Bo Melton – Rutgers
- PSI Rank: 79.7%
- Rookie ADP: 4.11
- PSI Profile Comp: Phillip Dorsett
TIER 2 – 80TH PERCENTILE
- Drake London – University Southern California
- PSI Rank: 80.1%
- Rookie ADP: 1.04
- PSI Profile Comp: Mike Williams
- David Bell – Purdue
- PSI Rank: 83.4%
- Rookie ADP: 2.01
- PSI Profile Comp: Mohamed Sanu
- Tyquan Thornton – Baylor
- PSI Rank: 84.3%
- Rookie ADP: UDFA
- PSI Profile Comp: Paul Richardson
- Romeo Doubs – Nevada
- PSI Rank: 89.5%
- Rookie ADP: 4.02
- PSI Profile Comp: Leonard Hankerson
- Wan’Dale Robinson – Kentucky
- PSI Rank: 89.7%
- Rookie ADP: 2.11
- PSI Profile Comp: Mario Alford
TIER 1 – 90TH PERCENTILE
- Alec Pierce – Cincinnati
- PSI Rank: 90.9%
- Rookie ADP: 3.09
- PSI Profile Comp: DJ Chark
- Khalil Shakir – Boise State
- PSI Rank: 91.2%
- Rookie ADP: 2.09
- PSI Profile Comp: CeeDee Lamb
- Skyy Moore – Western Michigan
- PSI Rank: 94.8%
- Rookie ADP: 2.08
- PSI Profile Comp: Golden Tate
Thank you for reading, and don’t forget to check back after the NFL draft for the finalized PSI rankings.
5 thoughts on “2022 Prospect Success Indicator Pre-Draft Report”
Any reason why Garret Wilson was left out of the 2022 analysis?
He checked in at Tier 5 pre-draft and I only went down to Tier 4 due to historical hit-rate results. I get why people like him and maybe he falls under the “OSU doesn’t utilize their best players” like Terry McLaurin but it’s hard to ignore that he was outplayed by both Olave and a Freshman throughout his career.