Welcome to year 7 of the Prospect Succes Indicator Report!
Whether you’re a returning reader or new to my work, if you want to learn more about the details that go into the PSI model, click here; if you just want to see the results continue scrolling.
What is the Prospect Success Indicator Model?
PSI is a model of advanced weighted metrics designed to cut through the noise and biases and increase our hit rates. It compares those incoming rookie profiles to the composite profile of historical top 24 wide receivers. Prospects are then measured against that profile, and the Prospect Success Indicator Percentile Rank tells us how close these incoming rookies match the composite profile.
FAQ: Does a 90% PSI Percentile Rank mean he has a 90% chance of breaking out?
- No, it just means he’s a 90% match to the composite profile of an average top 24 wide receiver in fantasy football. However, the higher the rank, the better the hit rates are (see tables below).
FAQ: What can historical Pre-draft PSI scores tell us about this upcoming draft?
- Using the tables below, we see that historically ~83% of all wide receiver prospects who achieve a top 24 season are already in the top 60th percentile and above as of this writing. In addition, those wide receiver prospects produce ~90% of the total top 24 seasons in the historical database.
Below are the pre-draft PSI percentile rankings for the top four tiers of wide receivers in the 2023 class, along with Dynasty Rookie ADP, courtesy of FF Faceoff.
- Profile comps are as incoming NFL prospects, not as the likely finished NFL products you know today. (Comp = size + athleticism + age-adjusted college production.) Profiles are not based on playstyle/film
- Pre-NFL Draft – view the rankings as – “Draft capital aside, who looks the most like a future Top 24 wide receiver in this rookie class?”
A more formal write-up on each prospect will be done after the NFL draft, so look out for my follow-up article with the finalized rankings and player context to help you best prepare for your rookie drafts.
TIER 4 – 60TH PERCENTILE
- Jordan Addison – USC – *Post publish edit due to addition of agility data into his profile
- PSI Rank: 60.5%
- Rookie ADP: UDFA
- PSI Profile Comp: Josh Stewart
- Kayshon Boutte – LSU
- PSI Rank: 60.7%
- Rookie ADP: 1.11
- PSI Profile Comp: Antonio Callaway
- Jayden Reed – Michigan State
- PSI Rank: 61.5%
- Rookie ADP: 4.04
- PSI Profile Comp: Chris Olave
- Zay Flowers – Boston College
- PSI Rank: 65.0%
- Rookie ADP: 1.12
- PSI Profile Comp: KD Cannon
- Quentin Johnston – TCU
- PSI Rank: 65.2%
- Rookie ADP: 1.05
- PSI Profile Comp: Erik Ezukanma
- Jalin Hyatt – Tennesee
- PSI Rank: 65.9%
- Rookie ADP: 2.03
- PSI Profile Comp: Danny Gray
- Michael Wilson – Stanford
- PSI Rank: 66.3%
- Rookie ADP: 4.01
- PSI Profile Comp: Kenny Lawler
- Xavier Hutchinson – Iowa State
- PSI Rank: 68.1%
- Rookie ADP: 3.10
- PSI Profile Comp: Tyrell Williams
- Jalen Cropper – Fresno State
- PSI Rank: 69.5%
- Rookie ADP: UDFA
- PSI Profile Comp: Tyler Lockett
TIER 3 – 70TH PERCENTILE
- Rashee Rice – SMU
- PSI Rank: 72.1%
- Rookie ADP: 2.10
- PSI Profile Comp: Michael Gallup
- Tyler Scott – Cincinnati
- PSI Rank: 76.3%
- Rookie ADP: 4.05
- PSI Profile Comp: Jarius Wright
- Josh Downs – North Carolina
- PSI Rank: 78.0%
- Rookie ADP: 1.11
- PSI Profile Comp: Marquez Stevenson
TIER 2 – 80TH PERCENTILE
TIER 1 – 90TH PERCENTILE
- Marvin Mims – Oklahoma
- PSI Rank: 90.2%
- Rookie ADP: 3.02
- PSI Profile Comp: Brandin Cooks
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Ohio State
- PSI Rank: 90.7%
- Rookie ADP: 1.03
- PSI Profile Comp: CeeDee Lamb
Thank you for reading, and don’t forget to check back after the NFL draft for the post-draft PSI rankings.
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