Welcome to the 2023 Prospect Success Indicator (PSI) Post-Draft Report.
If you missed the Pre-Draft Report, want to learn more about what goes into the Prospect Success Indicator model and/or see the entire 2010-2023 Prospect Success Indicator Database follow the links below
- 2023 PSI Pre-Draft Report
- 2010-2023 Prospect Success Indicator Database
- Prospect Success Indicator: Official Database and Calculations
What is the Prospect Success Indicator Model?
PSI is a weighted equation of various advanced metrics designed to cut through the incoming class and narrow the field to increase our hit rates. It compares the incoming rookie profiles to the average Top 24 wide receiver profile. It is then distilled down to a percentage, the Prospect Success Indicator Percentile Rank, which tells us how close these incoming rookies match the profile of a Top 24 wide receiver.
PSI Hit Rates by Tier
- The first table shows you the total amount of wide receiver prospects to go on to have at least (1) Top 24 season by tier
- The second table shows you the total amount of Top 24 seasons those wide receivers delivered by tier
- Ex: In Tier 1 – 90th percentile – 34 wide receivers (45%) have hit and provided 123 Top 24 Seasons (59%).
Prospect Profile Terms and Glossary
- PSI Rank: is the percent to which the prospect profile closely matches that of the historical top 24 profile.
- FAQ: Does a 90% PSI Percentile Rank mean he has a 90% chance of breaking out?
- No, it just means he’s a 90% match to the baseline profile of an average top-24 wide receiver in fantasy football.
- FAQ: Does a 90% PSI Percentile Rank mean he has a 90% chance of breaking out?
- Rookie ADP: ADP data is brought to you by FFFaceoff 1 QB Dynasty Rookie ADP
- PSI Player Comp: these are the prospect-to-prospect comps based on size, athleticism, and age-adjusted college production.
- Actionable Takeaway: You can use this as a data point in your process to help determine who may be over/undervalued in rookie drafts.
Below are the post-draft PSI percentile rankings for the top 3 tiers of wide receivers in the 2022 class.
TIER 3 – 70TH PERCENTILE – ~13% HIT RATE
Tyler Scott – Chicago Bears – 4th Round Pick
- PSI Rank: 75.7%
- Rookie ADP: 4.02
Overview: Tyler Scott is undersized, doesn’t have an elite athletic trait, and was not productive enough to be seen as a future WR1 for any NFL franchise. Scott will likely provide the occasional splash play but largely profiles as a decoy receiver who will help keep defenses honest with his speed. In Addition, Scott broke out at age 21. It should be known that the 21-year-old breakout receiver profile has an 8% success rate amongst its breakout-age peer group. Should Tyler Scott break out, I would trade him away as his peer group is primarily a one-and-done type group.
- Player Comp: Jarius Wright
Jayden Reed – Green Bay Packers – 2nd Round Pick
- PSI Rank: 77.2%
- Rookie ADP: 3.01
Overview: Jayden Reed is one of three prospects to break out at age 18. Overall Reed’s profile is that of a well-rounded receiver with solid but not elite physical traits. There isn’t anything in his analytical profile that stands out as a red flag, but there isn’t anything that stands out as elite, either. At Michigan, Reed’s best season was his Junior year when he for over one-thousand yards on fifty-six catches and ten touchdowns. His production took a huge hit his final year, about a forty-percent dip from the prior year, putting him on par with his first two years in college. The question with Reed is, which player are you getting, the junior year breakout and Star of the Senior Bowl or the guy who didn’t do much every other year? Assuming you like Doubs and Watson as the top two receivers entering 2023, I don’t think Reed poses much of a challenge for either.
- Player Comp: Chris Olave
Jalin Hyatt – New York Giants – 3rd Round Pick
- PSI Rank: 77.9%
- Rookie ADP: 2.06
Overview: Jalin Hyatt went from unknown to supernova with his performance against Alabama last season, putting up nearly twenty percent of his total yards and a third of all his touchdowns in one game. Excluding that game, he was having the best season of his career by far, as he did next to nothing in his college career before last year, which explains his late break-out age (21.1). Hyatt possesses elite track-level speed, as demonstrated by his 4.40 forty-yard dash and 10.46 in the 100m, and 21.14 in the 200m. Route running is an issue for him as he’s pretty raw in that area outside of being an excellent deep ball receiver. Hyatt may win you a week here and there as a flex option who catches a couple deep passes for a touchdown, but expecting consistency from him might be a year or two away if it even happens.
- Player Comp: Danny Gray
Michael Wilson – Arizona Cardinals – 3rd Round Pick
- PSI Rank: 78.0%
- Rookie ADP: 4.03
Overview: Michael Wilson might be this year’s case of “what could’ve been.” Wilson had a very intriguing college career that, unfortunately, kept getting derailed by injuries. Wilson broke out as a Sophomore and led his team in receiving at the age of 19, and he looked poised to build off that campaign, except he never played a full season again due to a variety of injuries. The injuries explain why he never eclipsed a twenty percent dominator rating in his final three years in college. He ran a sub-par 4.58 forty-yard dash despite flashing decent agility and great explosion in the other drills. While Wilson will never wow you with great speed and will likely have to overcome press/tight coverage, he is a decent route runner that offers up run-after-the-catch ability. Wilson has a rookie ADP in the fourth round of rookie drafts and enters a depth chart that has yet to find a reliable number two behind DeAndre Hopkins. The value/opportunity is there for the taking; however, can he stay healthy enough to be the guy? That’s the million-dollar question.
- Player Comp: Kenny Lawler
Jordan Addison – Minnesota Vikings – 1st Round Pick
- PSI Rank: 78.8%
- Rookie ADP: 1.04
Overview: Jordan Addison has been a “My Guy” since he broke out in Pittsburgh a few years back. On tape, Addison shows a lot to get you excited. His route-running, ball skills, and big-play ability immediately jump off the screen. In addition, you also love to see that he transferred to a bigger school and still performed at a high level despite a new QB, Head Coach, system, and stiffer competition. From an analytical lens, the story is a bit less exciting; Addison checks nearly all the boxes. The issue – it’s minor – is that nothing jumps off the page quite like his game film did for me. I like it when the numbers match the film, and I feel left wanting a little more here. In College, a friend used to say, “C’s get degrees,” which feels like an appropriate way to describe Addison’s profile. I’m very excited to see what he can do on Sunday’s opposite Justin Jefferson.
- Player Comp: Josh Stewart
TIER 2 – 80TH PERCENTILE – ~24% HIT RATE
Zay Flowers – Baltimore Ravens – 1st Round Pick
- PSI Rank: 81.3%
- Rookie ADP: 1.06
Overview: Zay Flowers enters the NFL after leading Boston College in receiving the last three years. Despite leading the team in receiving for three years, he didn’t register his first thousand-yard season until his final year. However, we do like that in all three years, Flowers had a dominator rating above thirty percent, culminating with forty percent in his final year. Zay Flowers – like many wide receivers entering the NFL in recent years, does not possess your prototypical size. Zay Flowers comes in at five-foot-nine inches tall and weighs a mere hundred and eighty-two pounds. Despite those size concerns, he still managed to win fifty percent of his contested catches last season. Flowers is a dynamic receiver with the ball in his hands and can be an excellent run-after-the-catch player. With Bateman and Odell Beckham on the outside in Baltimore, Flowers will likely slide into the slot wide receiver role in this offense, providing Lamar Jackson with another security blanket.
- Player Comp: KD Cannon
Quentin Johnston – Los Angeles Chargers – 1st Round Pick
- PSI Rank: 81.4%
- Rookie ADP: 1.05
Overview: If, like me, you play in Devy leagues, then you’ve heard Quentin Johnston’s name for years now as the potential wide receiver number one of his draft class. Now that we’re here, does the reality meet the hype? Sort of. Johnston brings prototypical size and athleticism to the position. He uses his god-given talents well – especially versus zone coverage – he’s tough to tackle and can rack up yards after the catch, perhaps better than any other receiver in this class. He needs to improve versus man coverage and at the point of attack – Maybe Mike Williams can mentor him? – if he can do that, he will definitely be a bonafide alpha for the Chargers for years to come. My one concern is that he never really dominated at TCU, where he averaged a paltry twenty-five percent dominator rating over three years in college and did not break one thousand yards until his final season. Now to be fair, that is good enough to meet the requirements necessary that I look for, but I would have preferred to see a more dominant performance from a first-round pick given there were no other serious NFL caliber prospects he was competing with – sorry, not sorry, Derius Davis.
- Player Comp: Erik Ezukanma
Rashee Rice – Kansas City Chiefs – 2nd Round Pick
- PSI Rank: 83.1%
- Rookie ADP: 2.09
Overview: For me, Rashee Rice was this year’s surprise when the pre-draft report results came in. I had never heard the name prior to when I began this process in February, and even then, he was nothing more than a random name on the page. When the pre-draft report highlighted him, I knew I had to dig in to find out more about Rice. Rashee Rice has prototypical size and athleticism, broke out at age 20, and enters the league at 22. Across four years at SMU, he led the Mustangs in receiving twice (2020, 2022). in three of his four years, he averaged just over fourteen yards per reception, but in 2020, that dropped to ten, which is why he didn’t lead his team in receiving that year (Danny Gray did). That stands out as more of an anomaly to me, which I’m willing to overlook. On the field, Rice was not asked to run a full route tree which will be part of his development that will bear watching at the next level. However, Rice has great ball skills and often makes the first defender miss, allowing him to gain yards after the catch. If Rice continues to develop by cleaning up his route running, like he did every year in College, he has a good shot to be the alpha wide receiver in Kansas City. Juju is now gone, Toney is always hurt, Skyy Moore failed to launch, and MVS is MVS. Why not Rice?
- Player Comp: Michael Gallup
Josh Downs – Indianapolis Colts – 3rd Round Pick
- PSI Rank: 84.2%
- Rookie ADP: 2.03
Overview: The Colts have officially rounded out their offensive weapons with Josh Downs. A big athletic tight-end in Jelani Woods, a possession receiver in Michael Pittman, a field stretcher in Alec Pierce, and now they have their shifty slot receiver in Josh Downs. Josh Downs reminds me of a lighter but more productive Amon-Ra St.Brown in college. Obviously, Downs’ does not have the ideal size checking in at sub one hundred seventy-five pounds. What he lacks in size, he more than makes for in other areas. Analytically, Downs broke out at age 20, had a dominator rating of thirty-two percent, and was the most agile prospect in this year’s class. Josh Downs can best be described as a productive and dynamic slot receiver on the field. He is quick in and out of his cuts and has no issues getting open on his own. What perhaps helps make Downs special is that he was able to secure seventy-two percent of contested catches despite his lack of size. Josh Downs strikes me as more of a volume-dependent receiver who can offer good red zone production but will perhaps lack the big play-making ability that other receivers in this class can give you.
- Player Comp: Marquez Stevenson
TIER 1 – 90TH PERCENTILE – ~45% HIT RATE
Marvin Mims – Denver Broncos – 2nd Round Pick
- PSI Rank: 93.3%
- Rookie ADP: 2.08
Overview: Marvin Mims entered the NFL after leading the Oklahoma Sooners in receiving for three years in a row. Naturally, this means Mims broke out at the tender age of 18. He didn’t break a thousand yards until his Junior/final year, but even when he did;t, he still led his team by a margin greater than 200 yards. In addition to proving to be an alpha receiver at a young age, he also did it very efficiently and explosively, averaging an absurd twenty yards per reception in his career. Finally, Marvin Mims made some of the most acrobatic catches we have ever seen in college football. His flair for the acrobatic reminds me so much of former NFL wide receiver Brandon Lloyd. On film, Mims proved he could separate downfield, showcased an elite ability to track the ball, could win in contested situations, and had a knack for making big plays. For me, his lone concern is his size at five-foot-eleven and one hundred and eighty-three pounds, Mims is far from the typical prototype, but none of that had held him to this point in his promising career. Mims currently has an ADP in the mid to late second round of rookie drafts, which seems absurd and mispriced, given his profile and that the next receiver we will talk about has a top-five ADP. Lastly, Sean Payton hit gold a few years ago with Brandin Cooks and Mims profiles very closely to Cooks. Has Sean Payton hit gold again?
- Player Comp: Brandin Cooks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Seattle Seahawks – 1st Round Pick
- PSI Rank: 94.9%
- Rookie ADP: 1.04
Overview: Jaxon Smith-Njiba, out of Wide Receiver University, seriously, if you want to be a top prospect, Ohio State is the school you go to. Ngjiba only has one real season of college football under his belt due to injury, but boy, was it one for the history books. Njiba led all receivers at Ohio State, a team with Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson. That year he produced ninety-five receptions for sixteen-hundred yards and nine touchdowns. He had almost six hundred MORE yards than the current NFL rookie of the year, Garrett Wilson. Wilson and Olave are on the record saying Njigba was/is better than both; that’s some praise. Njigba won’t wow you with overall elite athleticism, like his new teammate D.K. Metcalf, but he does offer elite-level agility that allows him to gain amazing separation. At the NFL level, Njigba profiles more as a slot receiver, which is fine as it aligns well with his strengths. On film, Njigba is crafty and competitive and finds a way to almost always gain leverage and win. Jaxon Smith-Njigba also offers you a little more size than Marvin Mims. In all, Jaxson Smith-Njigba was the consensus number-one wide receiver of the class, and the data backs it up.
- Player Comp: CeeDee Lamb
Thank you for reading. Dont forget to follow me on Twitter @ProFootballPSI
4 thoughts on “2023 Prospect Success Indicator Post-Draft Report”
Thank you! I cannot begin to tell you how I look forward to this report. Solid information for my dynasty drafts.
Appreciate it. Thanks for the support l.
Hey, can you check your spreadsheet? I do not see the 2023 info. It still only goes to 2022. Thanks!